The breakthroughs in Artificial Intelligence (AI) will bring massive social consequences, transforming the modern life by reshaping several industries —transportation, health, science, or finance. The transition is rising new challenges (from rebuilding infrastructure or developing new cyber-security systems and networks, to crafting new laws and regulations) for scientists and engineers, policymakers and government, and also to the public.
The When Will AI Exceed Human Performance? Evidence from AI Experts study from Oxford and Yale University researchers forecasts the transformative potential of AI: a key finding pointed toward a 50% chance of something like High-Level Machine Intelligence (HLMI) will outperform humans in every job from 2035 to 2050. The survey gathered opinions from AI experts around the globe about the timing of specific AI capabilities, superiority at particular occupations, and the advantage over humans at all tasks; it also covered the social and ethical impacts of advanced AI.
The Oxford and Yale researchers summarized the opinions and calculated the years AI might take each of those jobs over in the next 50 years; according to trends in computing hardware, task performance, and the automation of labor:
The World Economic Forum put together an interactive timeline of when machines can achieve human-like capabilities, using the insights from the Oxford and Yale survey:
2024 - translating languages
2025 - assembling LEGOs
2026 - writing high school essays
2027 - autonomous trucks
2029 - run a 5K race against people
2030 - service workers in retail
Even when this outlook, we must remember the AI disruption will produce a new generation of jobs that do not exist today, requiring skills and training with no precedents; a complete evolution of some tasks that we know: AI is creating (new) jobs, not stealing them!